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Houston’s economy expanded slightly faster in February than January, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors reporting growth, according to the most recent Houston Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) prepared by the Institute for Supply Management-Houston. 

The overall PMI rose 1.1 points to 53.7, up from 52.6 the month before. Readings above 50 indicate overall expansion in the economy, below 50, contraction. The overall PMI has tracked above 50 for all but two months since August ’20.

Regarding the two major subcomponents: 

• The Houston Manufacturing PMI rose 0.4 points to 55.4, suggesting strong expansion. It had tracked below 50 through much of last year but this February marks the second consecutive month with readings above 50.
• The Houston Non-Manufacturing PMI rose 1.1 points to 53.7 showing moderate expansion. It has tracked above 50 for all but one month since August ’20.

All three indicators with a strong positive correlation with economic activity—sales/new orders, employment, and lead times—are pointing to overall economic expansion. 

Two of the three underlying indicators that have the strongest positive correlation with economic growth—sales/new orders and employment—are pointing to expansion. The third indicator with a strong positive correlation (lead times) continues to give a modest signal for contraction. 

• The sales/new orders index fell 3.5 points to 52.8 (still expanding just at a slower rate). 
• The employment index rose 3.9 points to 56.8, a second straight month of expansion. As measured by the PMI, employment has expanded in 36 of the last 37 months.
• The lead times index rose 2.6 points to 50.1.

The finished goods inventory index, the underlying indicator that has the strongest inverse correlation with economic activity, remained nearly flat, falling 0.2 points to 49.6.

On an industry-specific basis construction, manufacturing, trade/transportation/warehousing, and professional and management services reported strong expansion. Real estate, health care, and oil and gas reported moderate weakness.

The PMI is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management – Houston and is based on a survey of supply chain executives in the region. For additional information, click here.

Prepared by Greater Houston Partnership Research

Patrick Jankowski, CERP
Chief Economist
Senior Vice President, Research
pjankowski@dishiniyulechengshiji.com

Leta Wauson
Research Director
Greater Houston Partnership
lwauson@dishiniyulechengshiji.com